It's still looking like 2010 could be a good year for the Republican Party in North Carolina, a new polls shows. Public Policy Polling -- which does work for Democratic candidates but which has high credibility because of its accuracy in assessing various races, says the atmosphere in this state remains favorable for the Grand Old Party. The situation is stable right now, and Barack Obama's disapproval rates bode well for Sen. Richard Burr's reelection campaign, the firm says.
That reinforces that conclusions of other pollsters and analysts that it's Republicans' election to lose. Not everyone is persuaded, of course. Some analysts think Republicans are overplaying their hand on opposition to the new health care reform bill, and that voters are much less interested in the Republican ideology than they are in electing people who will get things done. Of course, the GOP primary is a lot different from a general election in November, and a lot of things can change before then.
In any case, here's PPP analyst Tom Jennings's latest thoughts:
"Although plenty has happened in politics both nationally and in North Carolina over the last six months, there's been virtually no change in the major indicators that will predict what happens in this fall's elections.
"In September Republicans had a 43-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. In March it was a 42-42 tie. The GOP continues to have its best chance since 1994 of reclaiming control of the General Assembly, thanks in particular to a continual strong advantage with independents. But Democrats are looking better here than they are in a lot of other states and still maintain a large degree of support.
"Feelings about Barack Obama will go a long way this fall toward determining both Richard Burr's fate and the balance of power in Raleigh, and his numbers are pretty static as well. In September his approval rating was 45% and now it's 46%. The prospects of North Carolina Democrats for this year took a nosedive over the course of last summer but the bleeding stopped in the fall and things have remained pretty much unchanged since then.
"In North Carolina's premier race for this year, Richard Burr's approval rating stood at 38% in September and is pretty much unchanged now at 35%. Burr's fate may end up being determined more by Obama's approval numbers than his own. If the majority of North Carolina voters continue to disapprove of the President, it's unlikely the state is going to elect a Democratic Senator this year. But if Obama gets back in positive territory or can just break even the prospects of the eventual Democratic nominee will be pretty good.
"Stability is the story in the North Carolina political landscape right now."
