Those hoping for strong words of encouragement at today's N.C. Economic Forecast in Raleigh sponsored by the N.C. Chamber and the N.C. Banker's Association may have been disappointed, but UNC Charlotte Professor of Economics John Cannaughton kept the crowd focused on the reality of the state's economy. Among his remarks:
-- "The recession's over. It's has been over for six months. Relax."
-- He's reminded of what John Kenneth Galbraith once said: "The purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look good."
-- The recession may be over but "for most of us it doesn't feel that way" because of the staggering numbers of unemployed.
-- "We're not going to start feeling better until we see jobs being created."
-- North Carolina has lost about 300,000 manufacturing jobs. In November 2009, North Carolina had 300 more people employed than it had in December of 2000, making the aughts North Carolina's "lost decade."
-- It's going to be a slow recovery.
-- In 2010, about 32,000- 33,000 jobs will be created. Normally, N.C. sees about 60,000 to 70,000 jobs created. In some years, it has been 80,000 or 90,000 jobs created.
-- In December of 2010, expect unemployment to be about 10 percent, perhaps 9.8 percent.
-- There may be another federal jobs program but it won't be a permanent cure.
-- We've got to be realistic about how long it takes get those lost jobs back -- five years or more, he said.
