In the 2008 election, black turnout in North Carolina was well above what it normally is -- perhaps 23 percent, above the African American proportion of the N.C. population, around 21-22 percent and well above 2004 turnout of around 18-19 percent.
Now Public Policy Polling has calculated which races the heavy black turnout made a real difference in, and it's interesting: Without the heavy black turnout, Obama would not have won the presidential race in North Carolina. If it was at 2004 levels, McCain would have won here by 3 percent. And Republican Pat McCrory might have won the governor's race instead of losing to Bev Perdue. Might have, mind you; PPP's Tom Jensen says it would have been close, but the Charlottean might have taken the race by a single percentage point.
In other races, Kay Hagan would still have beaten Elizabeth Dole -- which Jensen says ought to encourage Democrats thinking of challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr in 2010. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton would have won without the heavy turnout, too and so would others in Council of State races. Here's a link to his analysis in these races, part of a larger online analysis. Fascinating stuff. The full report is here.
Jensen wrote:
"Obviously there’s no way Barack Obama could have taken North Carolina if there had been normal black turnout but he still would have done considerably better than John Kerry or Al Gore did in the state. That speaks to two things: first, that changes in the voting patterns of white voters did play a key role in Obama’s North Carolina victory and second, that it was not just the quantity of the black vote that played an important role in his victory in the state but also that African Americans voted monolithically Democratic to a greater extent than they had in previous elections. The difference between a Democratic candidate winning the black vote 95-5 and 85-15 is worth at least 200,000 votes in North Carolina, enough to change the results of both the Presidential and Gubernatorial contests in the state."
