It's no secret that the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., has turned over regularly since 1974. Since Sen. Sam Ervin retired, occupants of that seat have barely had a six-year hold on the office. The other Senate seat was held by Jesse Helms for five straight terms before Sen. Elizabeth Dole held it just one term -- losing last week to state Sen. Kay Hagan. Prior to this year, some Democrats may have been thinking they couldn't pick up another Senate seat until Burr came up for re-election.
Now Public Policy Polling -- which has seen its reputation soar during the 2008 election -- says Burr has a challenge ahead of him because his approval rating wad low in July --about 27 %. That may not bode well for his reelection hopes, but Burr has confounded political observers before with his successful one-on-one style of campaigning that reaches a lot more voters than it first appears to. And no doubt with Dole's loss and the low approval rating that PPP detected at mid-summer, Burr will be running hard and keeping fences mended.
Here's Tom Jensen's analysis:
North Carolina:
Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has just a 27% approval rating, according to a PPP survey conducted in July.
It's not that the voters dislike Burr- there are slightly more who approve of the job he's doing than disapprove. But a remarkably high 46% of them are ambiguous toward him.
That fact makes Burr pretty vulnerable for reelection in two years. Incumbency is a huge advantage, but much less so when the voters don't even really know who you are. And a 46% 'not sure' rating for a US Senator shows he's not doing much to attract the voters' attention.
After seeing Kay Hagan knock Elizabeth Dole many of the folks who declined to run in 2008 will no doubt be chomping at the bit for a second chance in 2010. PPP will begin testing possible matchups for that race soon.
