N.C.to be a 'permananent swing state?
Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling in Raleigh, a firm that does a lot of work for Democrats, reports how some changes in North Carolina's demographics may change political outcomes in coming years.
In short, he says in a new analysis based on interviews with a couple of thousand North Carolinians before the Democratic convention, "the state could trend more Democratic, particularly at the federal level, in the coming election cycles."
Among other things, he notes:
-- "Native North Carolinians are supporting Republican candidates for the major statewide offices this year, while migrants to the state are supporting Democrats."
-- "Newer North Carolina residents support the Democratic candidate more by a margin of anywhere from 11-15 points in the races for President, Governor, and Senate."
And he also cautions: "For Barack Obama to win North Carolina this year it will probably take an exceptional turnout from black voters and young voters. Moving forward though the changing demographics of the state would seem to have the potential to make it one of those permanent swing states in Presidential elections. Older conservative Democrats who often vote Republican will continue to be replaced in the population by more liberal Democrats who consistently vote for their party’s candidates. There will likely also continue to be an influx of voters who identify with neither party but at least for this year are leaning more toward the Democratic side of the spectrum."
Here's a link to the full report: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/achangingstate.pdf
