Joe Sinsheimer, the Raleigh Democrat who altered North Carolina’s political landscape with his relentless pursuit of the misdeeds of former Speaker Jim Black and his allies in the state House, is out of state for a semester but still thinking about politics here. He’s in Vancouver, B.C., where his spouse, Toddi Steelman, an N.C. State University professor of forestry, is on a fellowship. Sinsheimer, nicknamed the Sledgehammer by some admirers, sent along his thoughts the other day about how the conventional wisdom in the 2008 governor’s race a few months ago will be affected by new circumstances. Here’s what he had to say. (I added a few obvious items in parentheses to fill out his shorthand references for those who can’t recall all the full names):
I was thinking this am about how much the political winds have shifted in NC recently. Six months ago, almost every political observer in the state thought the Dem nominee for governor was a lock:
1. Now the GOP could nominate a gubernatorial canidate (Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory) who is a moderate and has a significant political track record in the state's largest media market.
2. The Mecklenburg Dem Party seems intent on political suicide. First they embarrass themselves by putting up (state Rep. Beverly) Earle as a candidate for mayor and now they keep extending the (Nick) Mackey debacle (as a replacement for former Sheriff Jim Pendergraph). Today, we read Mackey has invited (Rev. Al) Sharpton to Charlotte to make sure the racial polarization on this issue hits 100%.
3. Both (State Treasurer Richard) Moore and (Lt. Gov. Bev) Perdue have been damaged by the Parton Theater disaster and continue to snipe at each other without addressing the top issues in the state (economy, health care, transportation funding and immigration)
4. (Rep.) Thomas Wright's refusal to resign keeps the Dem corruption issue alive through the summer.
5. There is a greater than 80% chance that HRC (Hillary Rodham Clinton) will now lead the Dem ticket in the state.
6. There is a small chance that (U.S. Sen. Richard) Burr could be on the national ticket.
7. Neither (state Sen. Ka) Hagan (D-Guilford) nor (Chapel Hill’s Jim) Neal has attracted any national support in the U.S. Senate race and are likely to be outspent by a 4-1 margin by (U.S. Sen. Elizabeth) Dole.
8. The state is likely to be in the midst of a serious recession by this fall which is never good for the incumbent party (at the state or federal levels).
